DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
7 December 2009
Monday
Fundamental Outlook at 1500 GMT (EDT + 0500)
€
The euro lost ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.4755 level and was capped around the $1.4905 level. The common currency extended recent losses following Friday's better-than-expected U.S. November non-farm payrolls data that suggested the U.S. labour market is stronger-than-expected. Traders continued to pare risk today, especially as U.S. equity markets finished just above flat for the day. Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Dudley reported the recession is over but added the economy remains weak, adding the Fed's exit policy will be "complicated but manageable." Fed Chairman Bernanke spoke today and said inflation will likely remain "subdued" and added the U.S. economy will continue to face "formidable headwinds." Bernanke added the pace of expansion is likely to be "moderate." Fed-watchers continue to speculate the Fed will keep monetary policy largely unchanged for some time. Fed funds futures pared their bets that the Fed will raise rates as early as mid-2010. In eurozone news, European Central Bank President Trichet testified "the eurozone economy shows increasing signs of recovery" but noted uncertainty remains high. Trichet also noted inflation expectations remain "firmly anchored." ECB member Quaden, referring to when the ECB would begin to remove policy accommodation, said "Let's wait a bit, because right now we have forecasts that are still, by definition, uncertain. We will wait for more information in the months to come." Data released in Germany today saw October manufacturing orders off 2.1% m/m and 8.5% y/y. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.4720 level.
¥/ CNY
The yen appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¥89.05 level and was capped around the ¥90.35 level. Finance minister Fujii and World Bank President Zoellick did not discuss currencies or the economy in their meetings in Tokyo today. Data released in Japan overnight saw Japan's foreign reserves increase to US$ 1.074 billion last month, a record high. Deputy Prime Minister Nan verbally intervened last week and said "it would be good if the yen weakened a bit more." Bank of Japan last week announced a plan to offer three-month loans to commercial banks at 0.1%, a ¥10 trillion program designed to counter deflationary pressures and reverse the yen's strength. The Nikkei 225 stock index gained 1.44% to close at ¥10,167.60. U.S. dollar offers are cited around the ¥94.75 level. The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ¥132.35 level and was capped around the ¥134.35 level. The British pound moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested offers around the ¥148.80 level while the Swiss franc moved lower vis-à-vis the yen and tested bids around the ¥87.55 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar appreciated vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8291 in the over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.8276. Chinese Commerce Minister last week reported "The focus of global attention shouldn't be on the yuan's exchange rate, but the dollar's stability." The State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Friday reported the dollar's depreciation is a long-term trend.
Technical Outlook at 1330 GMT (EDT + 0500)
(Bid Price) (Today's Intraday Range)
EUR/ USD 1.4825 1.4903, 1.4755
USD/ JPY 89.49 90.36, 89.04
GBP/ USD 1.6443 1.6514, 1.6312
USD/ CHF 1.0195 1.0243, 1.0136
AUD/USD 0.9126 0.9187, 0.9051
USD/CAD 1.0517 1.0648, 1.0481
NZD/USD 0.7131 0.7187, 0.7080
EUR/ JPY 132.66 134.34, 132.36
EUR/ GBP 0.9014 0.9062, 0.9005
GBP/ JPY 147.13 148.81, 146.62
CHF/ JPY 87.75 88.96, 87.56
Support Resistance Support Resistance
EUR/ USD USD/ JPY
L1. 1.4470 1.4915 88.60 93.30
L2. 1.4355 1.5140 87.10 95.50
L3. 1.4175 1.5360 86.10 98.85
GBP/ USD USD/ CHF
L1. 1.6115 1.6685 1.0275 1.0580
L2. 1.5720 1.6830 1.0040 1.0695
L3. 1.5405 1.7040 0.9750 1.0885
AUD/ USD USD/ CAD
L1. 0.8450 0.8830 1.0535 1.0945
L2. 0.8300 0.9050 1.0365 1.1125
L3. 0.8070 0.9120 1.0155 1.1355
NZD/ USD EUR/ JPY
L1. 0.6880 0.7125 131.45 135.75
L2. 0.6750 0.7260 129.75 136.90
L3. 0.6535 0.7395 127.00 138.75
EUR/ GBP EUR/ CHF
L1. 0.8795 0.8995 1.5110 1.5380
L2. 0.8675 0.9105 1.4905 1.5580
L3. 0.8320 0.9225 1.4670 1.5880
GBP/ JPY CHF/ JPY
L1. 146.10 152.50 86.30 88.65
L2. 142.05 157.75 85.40 90.10
L3. 135.70 161.70 81.55 91.60
SCHEDULE
Sunday, 6 December 2009
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
2230 Australia November performance of construction index (50.9)
2350 Japan November official reserve assets (US$ 1.056 trillion)
Monday, 7 December 2009
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
0030 Australia November ANZ job advertisements (-1.7% m/m)
1100 Germany October factory orders (0.9% m/m)
1100 Germany October factory orders (-13.1% y/y)
1330 Canada October building permits (1.6% m/m)
1700 US Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke speaks
2000 US October consumer credit (-US$ 14.8 billion)
2145 NZ Q3 manufacturing activity (-4.8%)
2245 US Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Dudley speaks
2350 Japan October current account (¥1.567 trillion)
2350 Japan October trade balance, balance of payments (¥599.2 billion)
2350 Japan November bank lending (1.6% y/y)
Tuesday, 8 December 2009
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
N/A Japan November economy watchers' survey, current (40.9)
N/A Japan November economy watchers' survey, outlook (42.8)
0001 UK November BRC retail sales monitor
0001 UK November RICS house price balance (34.0%)
0030 Australia November NAB business conditions (12)
0030 Australia November NAB business confidence (16)
0030 Australia Q3 current account balance (-A$ 13.347 billion)
0500 Japan October leading index (86.4)
0500 Japan October coincident index (92.7)
0815 Australia Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Stevens speaks
0930 UK October industrial production (1.6% m/m)
0930 UK October industrial production (-10.3% y/y)
0930 UK October manufacturing production (1.7% m/m)
0930 UK October manufacturing production (-9.3% y/y)
1100 Germany October industrial production (2.7% m/m)
1100 Germany October industrial production (-12.9% y/y)
1300 Australia Q1 manpower survey
1315 Canada November housing starts (157,400)
1400 Canada Bank of Canada interest rate decision
2145 NZ November credit card spending (-0.2% m/m)
2330 Australia December Westpac consumer confidence (-2.50%)
2350 Japan Q3 gross domestic product (1.20% q/q)
2350 Japan Q3 gross domestic product, annualized (4.80%)
2350 Japan Q3 GDP deflator (0.20% y/y)
2350 UK November Nationwide consumer confidence (72)
Wednesday, 9 December 2009
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
N/A UK November NIESR gross domestic product, estimate (-0.4%)
0030 Australia October home loans (5.10%)
0030 Australia October trade balance (-A$ 1.894 billion)
0030 Australia October investment lending (-0.1%)
0030 UK Pre-Budget report
0645 CH November unemployment rate (4.0%)
0700 Germany October trade balance (€10.6 billion)
0700 Germany November consumer price index (-0.2% m/m)
0700 Germany October current account (€9.4 billion)
0700 Germany November consumer price index (0.3% y/y
0700 Germany October imports (5.8% y/y)
0700 Germany November CPI, harmonized (0.4% y/y)
0930 UK October trade balance (-₤7.194 billion)
1030 UK November BRC shop price index
1200 US MBA mortgage applications (2.1%)
1500 US October wholesale inventories (-0.9%)
2000 NZ Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate decision
2145 NZ Q3 terms of trade index (-9.0% q/q)
2350 Japan October machine orders (10.5% m/m)
2350 Japan October machine orders (-22.0% y/y)
2350 Japan November domestic corporate goods price index (-0.7% m/m)
2350 Japan November domestic corporate goods price index (-6.7% y/y)
Thursday, 10 December 2009
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
N/A Japan Q1 manpower survey
0000 Australia December consumer inflation expectations (3.2%0
0030 Australia November employment change (24,500)
0030 Australia November unemployment rate (5.8%)
0100 Australia Reserve Bank of Australia official speaks
0745 France November non-farm payrolls
0750 France October industrial production (-1.5% m/m)
0750 France October industrial production (-10.4% y/y)
0750 France October manufacturing production (-1.6% m/m)
0750 France October manufacturing production (-11.0% y/y)
0830 CH Swiss National Bank interest rate decision
0900 Eurozone European Central Bank monthly report
0900 Italy October industrial production (-5.3% m/m)
1000 Italy Q3 gross domestic product
1200 UK Bank of England interest rate decision
1200 UK Bank of England asset purchase program decision
1330 Canada October international merchandise trade (-C$ 900 million)
1330 US October trade balance (-US$ 36.5 billion)
1330 US Weekly initial jobless claims (457,000)
1330 US Continuing jobless claims (5.465 million)
2145 NZ November food prices (-1.5% m/m)
Friday, 11 December 2009
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
0000 Japan November consumer confidence (40.5)
0930 UK November PPI, input (2.6% m/m)
0930 UK November PPI, input (0.1% y/y)
0930 UK November PPI, output (0.2% m/m)
0930 UK November PPI, output (1.7% y/y)
0930 UK November PPI, core output (0.3% m/m)
0930 UK November PPI, core output (2.0% y/y)
1330 Canada October new housing price index (0.5% m/m)
1330 US November import price index (0.7% m/m)
1330 US November import price index (-5.7% y/y)
1330 US November advance retail sales (1.4%)
1330 US November retail sales, ex-autos (0.2%)
1500 US University of Michigan consumer sentiment (67.4)
1500 US October business inventories (-0.4%)
No comments:
Post a Comment